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专家解读央行超预期降息的考量
Further policy easing may be in offing
中国人民银行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作，20亿元7天公开市场逆回购操作，中标利率均下降10个基点，分别是2.75%和2%。本次央行降息超出市场预期。央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告，强化了对“不搞大水漫灌”的关注。市场预期流动性仍将保持宽松。央行在当前时点降息10个基点，笔者理解主要有以下三个原因。Further policy easing may be in offing
The People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, recently lowered the rate on 400 billion yuan ($58.89 billion) of one-year medium-term lending facility loans to some financial institutions by 10 basis points to 2.75 percent. It also conducted 2 billion yuan of seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 2 percent, down from 2.1 percent.
中国人民银行开展4000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作，20亿元7天公开市场逆回购操作，中标利率均下降10个基点，分别是2.75%和2%。
It was an unexpected cut in interest rates. In China's second-quarter monetary policy report, the PBOC strengthened its focus on refraining from adopting a deluge of strong stimulus policies. The market expects liquidity to remain ample. As for the 10 bps interest rate cuts by the central bank, we understand they were carried out mainly for the following three reasons.
本次央行降息超出市场预期。央行发布二季度货币政策执行报告，强化了对“不搞大水漫灌”的关注。市场预期流动性仍将保持宽松。央行在当前时点降息10个基点，笔者理解主要有以下三个原因。
First, there is a rising need for cutting interest rates to support the real economy. Growth of some key economic data slowed in July from June, which does not augur well for a strong economic recovery in the third quarter and points to a deep-seated lack of growth momentum. On the one hand, demand declined owing to unsolved real estate problems. And given the increased risk of recession in Europe and the United States, the sword of Damocles is still hanging above the slowing export growth rate, despite exports' short-term resilience.
一是，降息支持实体经济的必要性提升。7月经济增长数据普遍较6月回落，三季度以来并未展现出经济强劲复苏的面貌，折射出深层次动力不足的问题。一方面是需求收缩，房地产问题仍待解决。出口短期虽有韧性，但考虑到欧美经济衰退的风险在加大，出口增速下行的“达摩克利斯之剑”仍悬。
On the other hand, overall market expectations are weak. During the three-year COVID-19 pandemic, some have been suffering deteriorating balance sheets, hampering consumption recovery. Meanwhile, enterprises still face problems like disruptions to production and logistics as well as insufficient demand, and enterprises do not have a strong willingness to use tax credit refunds to recycle into expanding investment.
另一方面是预期偏弱。疫情持续时间已近三年，部分居民资产负债表趋向恶化，消费复苏阻碍重重;企业生产物流受阻、需求不足问题延续，留抵退税转化为投资扩张的意愿偏弱。
Second, credit and social financing declined in July. Limited improvements in business and consumer confidence failed to boost demand for loans to the real economy. So far this year, social financing data have fluctuated greatly. As a result, it is still necessary to further reduce interest rates to stimulate loan demand.
二是，7月份信贷和社会融资规模回落。居民和企业信心改善有限，使得实体经济贷款需求疲弱。今年以来，社融数据“一波三折”。因此，仍有必要进一步降息刺激贷款需求。
Third, inflation and exchange rates reduced their role of acting as constraints, and it is time for a more discretionary monetary policy. In terms of internal inflation, growth rates of the consumer price index and the producer price index for July were both lower than market expectations, and the growth in core CPI also slowed in July. Meanwhile, the proportion of pork prices in the CPI slipped from 2.3 percent in early 2021 to 1.3 percent in July 2022 based on the Laspeyres Price Index. Therefore, subsequent inflation levels due to rising pork prices may be less drastic than previously thought.
三是，通胀与汇率两大约束暂有缓解，货币政策相机抉择的时间窗口打开。就内部通胀而言，7月消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)同比增速双双低于市场预期，核心CPI增速也有下行。同时，因拉氏指数的核算方法，猪肉占CPI的权重已自2021年初的2.3%下滑至2022年7月的1.3%，这意味着后续“猪通胀”的压力可能不及市场的悲观预期。
As for external constraints, the latest US July consumer inflation data came in weaker than forecast, indicating a peak in overseas inflation. The market altered its expectations for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in September. The US dollar index fell, and the renminbi exchange rate rose steadily.
就外部约束而言，最新公布的美国7月物价数据低于市场预期，海外通胀出现更多见顶迹象，市场对美联储9月加息的预期降温，美元指数有所回落，人民币汇率稳中有升。
International capital flows are expected to achieve marginal improvements due to domestic economic recovery and lower expectations for overseas central banks to hike rates. Therefore, we may interpret the exchange rate to be "adhering to bottom-line thinking", as written in China's second-quarter monetary policy report, which better allows for two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate and lets the exchange rate play its role as an internal and external balance regulator under the new situation of an improved external environment and international capital flows.
在国内经济复苏、海外央行加息预期缓和的背景下，国际资本流动形势有望迎来边际改善。二季度货币政策执行报告强调汇率“坚持底线思维”，或意味着外部环境和国际资本流动形势缓和下，可适当加大对汇率双向波动的容忍度，发挥其内外平衡调节器的作用。
Liquidity has continued to ease this year since early April, and the rate cuts sent a positive policy signal. On the one hand, the seven-day reverse repo rate averaged only 1.56 percent in July and dropped to 1.34 percent since the beginning of August, far below the policy rate of 2.1 percent.
今年4月初以来，货币流动性不断走向宽松，本次政策利率下调释放出积极的政策信号。一方面，7天回购利率7月均值仅1.56%，8月以来更低至1.34%，远低于政策利率的2.1%。
On the other hand, the cost of bank liabilities fell quickly. According to a news conference on financial statistics in the first half, the interest rate on newly absorbed time deposits was 2.5 percent in June, 16 bps lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, the cost of interbank liabilities fell sharply just as the money market interest rate did, and the spread between the issuance interest rate of one-year interbank certificates of deposit and MLF loans expanded, which averaged 27 bps in the first quarter and expanded to 60 bps in July and 81 bps since the beginning of August.
另一方面，银行负债成本较快下行。上半年金融统计数据新闻发布会表示，6月份新吸收定期存款利率为2.5%，比上年同期低16个基点。同业负债成本也跟随货币市场利率较快下行，存单利率与MLF之间的点差扩大：“MLF-股份制银行一年期同业存单发行利率”的差值，一季度的均值为27个基点，7月扩大至60个基点，8月以来更扩大至81个基点。
The main reasons for the contraction of MLF loans are that banks have insufficient demand for high-cost MLF funds and the divergence between policy rates and market rates is huge, reducing the leading effect of MLF policy rates on the cost of bank liabilities, so there is a great need for convergence between policy rates and market rates.
而本次MLF价降量缩的原因主要在于，银行对于成本偏高的MLF资金需求不足;因政策利率与市场利率的背离已较为严重，MLF政策利率对银行负债成本的指引作用有所下滑，政策利率与市场利率的收敛存在必要性。
In order to employ monetary policy to support the real economy, it is urgent to maintain the stability of total credit. Against the backdrop of advance issuance of government bonds, we need to pay more attention to the growth rate of aggregate financing to the real economy, excluding government bonds.
货币政策要支持实体经济，亟需解决“稳信用”的持续性问题。在政府债发行前置，更需关注剔除政府债后的社融存量增速。
We expect to see some monetary policy tools in the second half. This will increase medium and long-term lending. In the fields of technological innovation and green development, if funding is not as expected, it can be optimized by improving financial support in relending or extending the scope of funding applications. In the field of traditional infrastructure, policy-related and developmental financial instruments are combined with an 800 billion yuan increase in policy banks' lending quotas to fund infrastructure projects, thus leveraging infrastructure financing.
下半年还可期待的货币政策工具包括：加大中长期贷款的投放力度。在科技创新和绿色领域，如资金投放不及预期，可从提升再贷款资金支持比例、推广适用领域等方面优化拓展空间;在传统基建领域方面，政策性、开发性金融工具，政策性银行新增的8000亿元贷款额度相互配合，着眼于撬动配套的基建融资。
Also, there is a need to fully meet the credit needs of micro and small businesses, real estate and enterprises affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is advisable that the PBOC considers lowering relending rates for the agriculture sector and small businesses once more by 10 to 25 bps.
此外，充分满足普惠小微领域、房地产领域、及疫情受损行业企业的信贷需求。可考虑进一步下调支农支小再贷款利率10至25个基点。
In addition, there is a need to stimulate demand for lending by improving the market reform mechanism for deposit rates and further lowering deposit rates, so the over-five-year loan prime rate may be reduced notably. Meanwhile, the PBOC could cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage point when necessary, which would lead to a reduction in LPR by 5 bps.
通过完善存款利率市场化改革机制、进一步压降存款利率，刺激贷款需求，或可带动5年期贷款基础利率(LPR)更大幅度下行。同时，还可适时降准0.25至0.5个百分点以推动LPR再下行5个基点。
What needs to be emphasized is that according to current cuts in policy interest rates and lending rates, monetary policy is extending more support to the real economy, which is comparable to the period when the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in 2020. However, the current economic recovery is clearly weaker than at that time, so monetary policy easing will continue.
需要强调的是，以当前政策利率、贷款利率的调降幅度看，货币政策对实体经济的支持力度不亚于2020年新冠疫情后，但当前经济复苏的力度较当时要逊色，因此货币政策宽松的态势应会延续。
The writers are Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist at Ping An Securities Co Ltd and director of the China Chief Economist Forum, and Zhang Lu and Chang Yixin, analysts at Ping An Securities.
作者：钟正生/张璐/常艺馨(钟正生为平安证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事)
Their views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
文章观点并不代表本网站立场。
编辑：董静
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